Will Mobile Phones Outpace the iPod?

Bill Gates predicts the mobile phone will outpace the iPod as the mp3 player of choice in the near future.

"As good as Apple may be, I don't believe the success of the iPod is sustainable in the long run," he said in an interview published in Thursday's Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.

"You can make parallels with computers: Apple was very strong in this field before, with its Macintosh and its graphics user interface -- like the iPod today -- and then lost its position," Gates said.

Apple has around two thirds of the global market for MP3 music players and sold more than 5 million iPods in the last quarter.

OK, but maybe he made the prediction because “Microsoft is now positioning itself to be a key player in the growing market for digital movies, pictures and music and grow beyond its core Windows operating system business, partly in response to pressure from Apple.”

Microsoft is working with partners such as Samsung to provide its Windows Mobile smartphone software to 40 handset makers. "If you were to ask me which mobile device will take top place for listening to music, I'd bet on the mobile phone for sure," Gates told the newspaper.

Mobile phones can surely become a handy, Swiss-army knife of a utility...we've only started to tap into their capabilities in my opinion. But are we asking too much from a device where small size is clearly an advantage? I mean, several mobile phone models are starting to look more like a choking hazard than a wireless communication device.

Gates goes on in the interview to discuss retiring at 60 and he predicts that “Microsoft will make wireless e-mail ubiquitous."

Is it me or do the CEOs of US-based companies get awfully chatty with international media? Gates knows that any paper can have a truly international readership in the age of the Internet. Perhaps this is a calculated move, hoping international media are more likely to quote him directly?

media relations, Microsoft, mp3

Comments

[Bill Miles]

Again, Bill Gates is on the attack again against Apple as he did when the companies (Microsoft & Apple) first began. Yes, we all know that Bill Gates was smart enough to sell Windows to every computer hardware manufacturer and reap great wealth. But, Microsoft is not pretty and money is not everything (unless your Bill Gates). Technology has become a piece of household furniture and Apple has catered to that for years. It is now paying off. People want their furniture (technology) to be beautiful and fit their lifestyle. Microsoft may own the business market, but Apple owns the hearts and minds of household users and, to a large extent, educators. It's exponential. It's like comparing a Gremlin to a Mercedes. Windows is old, stodgy, and full of problems. When people get home from the office, they don't want to deal with the same technology that just cost them a productive day at the office. No, they don't want to see the interface they have to stare at 8 hours a day, 5 days a week. They want something refreshing. Something that caters to them. Something beautiful, enjoyable, entertaining, and problem free. Microsoft makes a living, Apple makes a life.

[Hans Eric Melin]

PR-wise the statements from Mr Gates are excellent. Either people like him or not they listen to him as being the pope of Information Technlogy, no matter how biased he is. And what Microsoft needs right now is to fuel the majority market with some doubts about what to invest in.

However I think this time he actually may be too late (even if he earlier has proved that late-comers can make it time after time). Because Ipod has been that vehicle of innovation that actually has made us change our behavior more than any device. By Podcasting you listen to radio in a completely new way, you actually can use your Ipod to displace your ordinary hifi equipment, by connect it to you TV set, you can podparty and hand in you device on a restaurant and become a DJ for a night etc, etc.

Sure, better battery packages will enhance the possibilities for MP3 in mobile phones. But meanwhile also Apple has the chance to innovate further. And this time I hope they will use that advantage.

[J]

This goes back to an older post regarding convergence between satellite radio and iPod. Jobs will ride this wave as long as he can before he needs to make a deal.

The smartphone market is definitely saturated, but what do you see everyone cranking on these days? I, for one, am a BlackBerry addict and seem to be surrounded by many others. So BlackBerry + iPod? That would rock. Each device really doesn't offer any unique functionality. In fact the new Nokia devices are already combining 4 gig drives with mobile handsets.

BlackBerry and iPod are to their device categories as Kleenex is to facial tissue. That brand awareness is why you see everyone and their mother with white earbuds hunting and pecking a message that has to be answered right now. Convergence is here, but the killer app won't rise to the top until the brands let it happen.

[dan]

Who's on the photo? What a nice guy :-)

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[conservatories]

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