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12/31/2006

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Neville Hobson

If you're looking at this from a critic's perspective, Kevin, then where you've placed SL on the hype cycle seems reasonable to me.

From a communicator's perspective (that includes marketing and PR), though, I think the red arrow should be pointing to somewhere near the top of the technology trigger, ie, before you get to the peak of inflated expectations. I don't think SL has crested that peak yet from this point of view.

If you were an active SL resident doing quite well at running an in-world business, you'd no doubt have an entirely different perspective. You'd probably place that red arrow on a spot somewhere along the plateau of productivity.

It's all about perspective, isn't it?

Kevin Dugan

Neville: Thanks for jumping in. You're spot on about perspective.

While the post is meant to be pragmatic as opposed to critical, I am pro-SL. Communiktor Nouvelle is my SL name (a bad play on New Communicator, I blame SL's naming process :-)

I'm enjoying it in bits when I can during off hours. This has made it tough for me to participate in some of the SL get togethers though.

That said I may be premature in my placement of SL on the curve. It's based on some of the louder, external discussions around SL. But I think the critics and commincators are probably closer to being at the same place on the curve. Active residents would definitely be different (hence my disclaimer). The sooner we move through inflated expectations and disillusionment in my opinion, the better.

Mike Keliher

I, too, agree with Neville in terms of the placement on the hype curve, which, by the way, looking at Tom's post, is a brilliant little thing.

Also, Kevin, just a word of thanks on your blogging efforts here and at BPB. You don't post often, which occasionally disappoints, but when you do post, it's always worth the wait.

Now that the holidays are wrapping up, will we see some more bad-pitch analysis?

Mike

Kevin Dugan

Wow, thanks Mike. Yes, some more Bad Pitch blog posts are in the works. In fact I just posted one of them this morning. Happy New Year!

Prokofy Neva

There's another graph of cycles you could put up behind this that would in part explain some of this -- the cycles of patches, or new versions of the software which have new features in them each time and target new audiences.

Linden Lab now puts them in every Wednesday or even more frequently, but about every 30 or 90 days they put one in that has so much in it, in terms of new features, and also so disfigures the world and breaks so much stuff from the old features that people take for granted that the shock makes quite a few people quit or sell off their Linden dollars or tier down, and that makes for those sloughs.

But then...even MORE people come in and raise up those dips and make the land and dollar even more valuable as they become more in short supply. So there are 7 day cycles with patches and also Linden stipends when everyone on the premium account gets paid, then patches every 30 days that demolish the world but add some bright new shiny thing in, then Horrible Events that happen also on a 90 day cycle like "The Great Telehub Removal" or "The Great Data Base Hack" or "The Forums Removal" etc. often on the 6th of the month as they run behind targeted schedules.

Getting to know the production cycle of LL itself will help figure out these charts.

Kevin Dugan

Prokofy: This is a great idea and thanks for the tip on LL production cycle as well. I created a new post with updates and refinements to the idea thus far.

Hiro Pendragon

This chart has 0 quantities, scientific studies, or actual polls to back it up. That makes it:

HYPE.

If you want to look at real numbers for SL, pay attention to 3 things: concurrent users, land owned, and US$ worth of L$ sold on the Lindex.

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